A Discussion on the Climate Change Act, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and Carbon Budgets.

By Nonhlanhla Radebe

The Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is where South Africa has made international commitments to climate action. As part of South Africa's commitment to global climate action, the Climate Change Act (CC Act) was enacted, reflecting the nation's dedication to fulfilling its international obligations under the Paris Agreement (PA). 

The Paris Agreement, a landmark accord under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), seeks to limit global temperature increases to well below 2°C, with efforts to cap the rise at 1.5°C. Unlike previous top-down approaches that often led to impasses due to concerns over national sovereignty, the PA's framework allows countries to define their contributions—referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—based on what they can realistically achieve.

The Paris Agreement commits to keeping global temperature change well below 2 °C, with “best efforts” to keep it below 1.5°C. Everyone is now in: all signatories to the PA must ratify by submitting their own commitments to the UNFCCC. These commitments are called Nationally Determined Contributions. A big change observed was that previous, commitments were dictated from a top-down process, administering caps to Nations. This led to impasses because it impacted on the sovereignty of nations. 

South Africa’s Commitment to Climate Action

South Africa, as a signatory of the PA, has crafted its NDC to reflect its unique national circumstances and capacities. The NDC is central to the Climate Change Act, which aims to embed these international commitments into national law. Given that climate change affects all sectors of the economy, a comprehensive and cross-sectoral approach is required. The CC Act provides a framework to ensure that national policies and international commitments are implemented effectively across various government departments.

The current NDC, running until 2030, is undergoing revision, with new commitments to be submitted in 2025 that will extend to 2035 or 2040. This next phase is critical, as it coincides with South Africa’s Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS), which is also under review. The challenge lies in ensuring that the short-term focus does not result in high emissions or inadequate adaptation efforts, making it harder to reverse course later. This is why both the Presidential Climate Commission and WWF have pushed for a net zero target by 2050 to guide the nation’s trajectory.

The Path to Net Zero

The concept of net zero is typically associated with carbon dioxide (CO2), the most significant greenhouse gas. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the world must achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and aim for negative emissions thereafter. For the 2°C target, the timeline extends, but the difficulty of achieving negative emissions underscores the urgency of action.

South Africa's revised NDC is expected to reflect this goal, as the Presidential Climate Commission advocates for it, and the current LEDS considers it an aspirational target. Achieving net zero requires balancing CO2 emissions with CO2 removals. However, the feasibility of doubling South Africa's CO2 removals by 2050 is highly questionable, given the country's limited potential for such an increase. Therefore, a reduction of over 90% in emissions by 2050 is necessary to meet the net zero target.

Carbon Budgets and Sectoral Emission Targets

The Climate Change Act introduces Sectoral Emission Targets (SETs) and Carbon Budgets to guide the country’s climate mitigation efforts. SETs are assigned over fifteen years in three phases, with each phase contributing to the overall trajectory of emission reductions. While power and energy industries, which are easier to decarbonize, should move faster, other sectors with harder-to-decarbonize processes may progress more slowly.

The allocation of carbon budgets is a crucial component of the CC Act. These budgets, which are assigned to companies with significant emissions, will be based on historical emissions and projected growth. However, there is a risk of companies inflating their production forecasts to secure larger budgets, potentially undermining overall emissions reduction efforts.

Each company must develop a mitigation plan to demonstrate how it will meet its carbon budget. Given that these plans must be registered within a year of the CC Act’s commencement, businesses should begin preparing now. This preparation is especially important as the scope of emissions covered by the budgets could expand to include upstream transport and energy emissions (Scope 2), and load shedding may drive the need for emissions reductions in self-generated energy.

The Impact of the Climate Change Act on South Africa

The Climate Change Act is South Africa's most comprehensive attempt to address both mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Although the Act was signed by President Ramaphosa on 23 July 2024, its implementation date remains uncertain, raising concerns about the potential delays in achieving emission targets and responding to climate events.

The Act is divided into six chapters, covering everything from policy alignment and institutional arrangements to national adaptation and greenhouse gas emissions management. A key feature of the Act is its emphasis on using the best available science, evidence, and information to guide climate responses. This is crucial in an era where misinformation and greenwashing pose significant threats to progress.

Furthermore, the CC Act requires all government bodies to align their policies, laws, and measures with climate change considerations. This alignment is essential for mainstreaming climate responses across all levels of government, from national to municipal. The National Greenhouse Gas Emissions trajectory, defined in the NDC, must be renewed every five years, ensuring that South Africa remains on track to meet its climate goals.

Conclusion

The Climate Change Act represents a significant milestone in South Africa’s climate policy, providing the legal framework necessary to drive ambitious climate action across all sectors of the economy. However, the success of the Act will depend on its timely implementation and the commitment of all stakeholders to meet the targets set out in the NDC and beyond. As the country moves towards a climate-resilient development paradigm, it is imperative that every sector contributes to achieving a sustainable future for all South Africans.

About the Author

Nonhlanhla Radebe is an environmental scientist with a specialized background in water engineering and geology. With extensive experience working across Africa, Nonhlanhla has collaborated with organizations such as the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance and Gender Climate Change Southern Africa, focusing on the intersections of climate justice and environmental sustainability. Currently, Nonhlanhla serves as the project manager for the Just SA Project at WWF South Africa, where they are leading efforts to find innovative solutions for managing mine-contaminated soil and water in Mpumalanga Province, addressing one of the most pressing environmental challenges in the region.